Typically designated as a “dump month” by studios, the final weeks of August may actually be one of the most lucrative opportunities for box office returns.
The end of Summer…a traditionally difficult time for most people. As a kid, I, like most kids, always struggled with those final weeks of August. It wasn’t merely the hazy humidity, the back-to-school blues, or family vacations being behind me. No, it was the lack of anything remotely compelling being released at the movies. In my desperation for one last hurrah before Summer concluded and the inevitable transition into a new year of school, all I had at my disposal were middling comedies, third-rate horror flicks, and action adventure films no one had asked for. In other words, the leftover films the studio wanted to quietly release.
Although as a kid I had no idea why this was, years later I learned that as with January, the final weeks of August are designated as a “dump month” by studios, meaning it is targeted as the time to release films the studio has little confidence in as they believe there is less interest in going to the movies during this timeframe. The rationale from studios ranges from kids going back to school, a lack of disposable income after spending it during earlier months of Summer, weak legs at the box office going into Fall, and historically a dearth of proven success. It’s no secret that the Summer movie season has been steadily expanding its boundaries for the past few years. With the notable success of The Winter Soldier and Fast Five proving the viability of April as well as Guardians of the Galaxy and Suicide Squad tackling the start of August, the idea of seasonality in consumer interest for films is proving to be an archaic notion. Yet the final weeks of August stubbornly remain a dumping ground for lesser quality films.
Recently after leaving my screening for Mission: Impossible – Fallout, the death knell for the Summer movie season was palpable as it set in that there were no more big studio bets on the horizon despite there being at least another month of Summer to savor.
What if in actuality this is a foolish practice by studios, and they are leaving a potential goldmine untapped?
What if the end of August is the ripest time for studios to release films they have full confidence in?
As mentioned earlier, one of the chief deterrents in movie studios’ lack of faith in late August box office prospects is due to children and parents becoming preoccupied with getting ready to return to school. With audience members aged between 12 and 17 attending more movies than any other age group and 18 to 24 year olds being the second largest, it is clear why school transitions should be a consideration for movie studios. There is no doubt that beginning a new school year is stressful as starting in a new school as well as moving away from home are both strongly weighted when determining a patient’s level of traumatic stress.
While this may seem as though it supports the idea that movies are the last thing on a transitioning student’s mind, studies have uncovered that distractions are helpful in mitigating anxiety for adolescents. By contrast, participants who reported a tendency to agonize during stressful occurrences in their life reported an increased level in depression and anxiety when compared with those who instead distracted themselves. Findings such as this make it logical to conclude that adolescents will naturally look for distractions during this August time period, possibly even more so than other times of the year as their stress levels will be higher during preparations for school.
Although there are many different ways that an adolescent could distract themselves, going to the movies is one of the most desirable options. Compared to other entertainment options such as a trip to a theme park or a sporting event, a movie is still the most affordable option for an outing, as the cost would be under $36 for a family of four. The obvious rebuttal of this point is that home entertainment options such as Netflix are even cheaper and more convenient, however, this is arguably less of a distraction from the tumultuous stress of school. Adolescents are also prone to attempt to dissociate from their parents and bond more with their peers as they mature as a means of deriving their identity, a process known as individuation. Going out to the movies with friends would help to facilitate this process and would naturally be more desirable to many adolescents rather than watching Netflix at home with their parents nearby, which would interfere with bonding with their peers.
While the end of Summer is most directly linked with children, this general sense of unease is common for people of all ages during the late Summer months even for those without a seasonal occupation. Psychologist Joshua Klapow contends that between the extreme temperatures, chaos for parents to get their kids back to school, and the lingering nostalgia of Summer no longer being as carefree for adults as when they were children, depression is amplified during the end of August. The implication being that other demographics such as adults or parents of children also have an inclination to engage in an entertaining distraction to alleviate Summer time depression. Klapow also advises that distractions are an effective way of dealing with this and even cites a trip to the movies as an effective form of treatment. This becomes problematic though if there is nothing appealing playing. Seeing a poorly conceived film such as Slenderman may in fact increase depression.
Another long held belief from studios regarding the likelihood of success in August is that even if a film opens big they won’t have the legs at the box office during September, which is considered a less popular moviegoing month for commercial titles. Although I’ve extensively analyzed why the start of school can actually serve as an impetus for increased trips to the movies, it’s also worth noting that in September children will be inclined to start bonding with their peers who they may have not seen for a large portion of the Summer. Social activities are required for this bonding, and aside from being one of the cheapest options, it is also an activity that doesn’t have an age limit for most movie titles in comparison with other socializing options such as bars and night clubs.
Perhaps the biggest piece of evidence that the month of September will not inherently diminish the legs of a blockbuster can be seen just last year with the release of the movie It. Despite premiering during one of the first weeks in September, It was the fifth most profitable movie of 2017, grossing $327.5 million in the U.S. and Canada. The opening weekend gross of $123 million actually surpassed blockbusters that premiered in the heavily desired early Summer slots such as Alien: Covenant, Pirates of the Caribbean 5, and Wonder Woman and was only narrowly edged out by Guardians of the Galaxy 2. The numbers don’t lie as these results offer support that the shift from August to September doesn’t mean that suddenly no one will go to the movies.
Although there will always be exceptions to any trend, historically speaking the box office is weaker in August and September, which makes studios quick to abandon even trying to release a substantial film during this period. This however may be a self-fulfilling prophecy from the studios rather than an indication about overall consumer behavior of moviegoers throughout the country. The New Yorker journalist James Surowiecki says it best when he claims that the data indicating that the box office is healthier during the earlier portion of Summer compared to late August is nothing more than a statistical illusion. Surowiecki elaborates that studios reserving August for the films they have little confidence in and clustering their biggest bets in the early portion of Summer are what account for this seasonal variation, not moviegoers inherently being less interested in going to the movies during this time of year.
Taking it one step further, this occurrence can be thought of as a form of operant conditioning, whereby the studio has in essence trained consumers when they should go to the movies. By offering an incredible assortment of critically acclaimed blockbusters during May, June, and July moviegoers have implicitly learned that this is the time to go to the movies. In contrast by offering a negative consequence such as a terrible film in August, moviegoers learn that this behavior will yield an unfavorable outcome, and therefore they will cease performing this behavior.
Despite this conditioning from studios, past releases have demonstrated that there is still a demand for movies in August. It’s only a matter of studios providing a film worth seeing. The past two weeks alone have demonstrated that despite August winding down, the films being offered are experiencing excessive success as both The Meg and Crazy Rich Asians are defying analyst’s most optimistic expectations. The Meg’s success is particularly surprising as the film was not critically lauded nor did it possess a pre-established franchise. Analysts have attributed the success in part to the lack of competition during this time frame compared with the previous months. With this in mind, imagine if a film such as Mission: Impossible – Fallout had opened during this time period. The film not only would have faced less fierce competition, but there would also be less cannibalization as previous blockbusters such as Ant-Man and the Wasp would be so old that they would not eat into its revenue significantly.
As a final note, it is worth exploring that according to the MPAA’s 2017 analysis of the theatrical market there is a select portion of consumers who frequent movie theaters once a month or more. This category designated as “frequent moviegoers” is composed of 12% of the U.S. and Canadian population, but constitute almost half of all ticket sales. Even if one were to buy into the studio’s perspective and believe that end of Summer distractions really are an issue, at the very least it won’t affect this group of consumers as going to the movies is already part of their routine. By focusing on the entire population who on an individual basis are much less influential to overall revenue, movie studios are leaving a huge amount of income on the table as these frequent moviegoers may go less often without the incentive of a quality film to see.
Tom Ortenberg who served as the head of Lionsgate Films as it grew into one of Hollywood’s premiere movie studios has been quoted as stating “There is never a bad time to release a good film – and there is never a good time to release a bad film.” Although 15 years old, this quote seems especially relevant today regarding the increased emphasis on data and trends in terms of predicting financial success. This overreliance on analytics is leading to studios overlooking the simple truth that moviegoers will buy a ticket if there is a quality story that warrants seeing.
Changes of season and life transitions are hard enough. Why make them even more strenuous for cinephiles and casual moviegoers alike by depriving them of an engrossing spectacle to take their mind off of it? Rethinking the notion of August as a dump month may very well prove to be beneficial to the studios and moviegoers alike.
